The Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest in 2016 is predicted to be in the strong range, with a point estimate of 34 million fish (80% confidence interval: 13–55 million fish). An actual harvest of 34 million pink salmon would be below the recent 10-year average of 38 million pink salmon. The 2016 forecast was produced in two steps: 1) a forecast of the trend in the harvest, and 2) the forecast trend adjusted using 2015 juvenile pink salmon abundance data provided by the NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, and Auke Bay Laboratories. A brief discussion and description of the forecast methods can be found at:
http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyareasoutheast.salmon#forecasts
Department staff will be available to discuss this forecast and plan for the 2016 season at the SE Alaska Purse Seine Task Force Meeting scheduled for December 1, 2015, in Sitka. In addition, staff from the NOAA Auke Bay Laboratories plan to attend this meeting and present their 2016 pink salmon harvest forecast for Southeast Alaska.